Prospectus
AI will transform possibilities, potentially opening paths toward positive outcomes. The articles here will build a coherent picture.
Advanced AI will transform possibilities, and our future will depend on which become real. I am persuaded that our options are both narrower and broader than they may seem, and that these options — if understood — would tend to align a range of divergent interests. In a world where cooperation may be necessary and conflict could be lethal, a shared understanding of AI-enabled options and their implications could prove crucial. This series of articles will explore these prospects, and I hope you will join the expedition.
AI’s cascading impacts
AI capabilities will drive cascading developments through advances in automation, robotics, information systems, and beyond. Consider robotics. For decades, robots have been controlled by rigid programming, but deep learning and abundant data are now enabling machines to see, plan, and act with adaptive flexibility.
As robotics improves, demand will rise, costs will fall, training data will grow, and robots will become far more useful. As applications spread through supply chains, their effects will compound.
Generative models will accelerate design, while flexible automation will accelerate production. Together, these advances will accelerate the deployment of new systems.
New systems, reduced costs, and accelerated deployment will speed change across a spectrum of technologies that includes consumer products, renewable energy infrastructure, industrial machinery, and military systems.
Meanwhile, AI-enabled software tools will accelerate software development and enable production of provably correct code at scale.
All of the above, in conjunction, will enable both global abundance and better trade-offs among security, openness, and privacy. No single development can have this impact, yet developments in conjunction could create options which — if widely understood — could become real.
…And perhaps create a future that is secure, open, and broadly appealing.
Depth and scope
Later articles will explore key concepts in depth, following trails marked by well-known facts. Topics span physical and software technologies, climate impacts, economic disruption, military capabilities, institutional politics, and a framework for strategic thought in a world accelerating toward deep, transformative change.
Initial focus
Understanding prospects for advanced AI is central to this project, and this starts with the very meaning of “intelligence”. I will re-frame “artificial general intelligence” in terms of extensible capabilities, not anthropomorphic entities: What we see is not the AI we were looking for (and fearing), it’s something more malleable.
Then, I will step back and consider how AI-enabled capabilities can transform options and could potentially align the goals of diverse actors. This is a topic with many layers and enormous implications.
Looking Forward
This series is an invitation to rethink potential futures for a world transformed by AI. You can help change the world by spreading the ideas that you think make sense
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